| Overview: Uncertainty persists despite positive US data
Uncertainty remained the key theme in financial markets as reassuring comments from the banking sector and some broadly positive US economic data failed to quell lingering credit worries on Wednesday. Bear Stearns, the US investment bank, said it expected to write down $1.2bn of mortgage-linked assets in the fourth quarter – less than many in the markets feared. .
Mining Weekly Editor Martin Creamer in conversation with Madupi ...
That combination of numbers is the magical solution to our problems and, why do I know that? Because we went through a winter with a forecast of 38 000 MW, in other words, we could generate 38 000 MW and still not have load shedding. What are we doing now? We are down to 29 000 MW. What is the problem? We are not sticking to that world benchmark of having 90% of power-generation capacity up, 7% on scheduled maintenance and not more than 3% on unscheduled maintenance. Now, how can we fall so badly behind on a world benchmark that Eskom itself set for itself? We have to get back to that benchmark and we will be out of the woods. Makhamele: Kim, that's a very strongly worded response from Martin, do you share his sentiments? Cloete: Well yes, I think you know generally South Africans are really concerned about that, just from the ordinary person, and anyone you speak to on the streets through to politicians, I mean we've seen the whole repercussions in Parliament as well, they called a special debate this week on the electricity crisis and I think it's absolutely 100% obvious that everybody was really worried about this crisis.
The Investment Column: Barclays investors should keep faith after ABN ...
In normal times, Barclays' shares would have bounced in the last few weeks after it lost out to Royal Bank of Scotland in the battle to buy ABN Amro. Instead, the bank's stock has fallen 12 per cent since 5 October, the day before it conceded defeat. Barclays is not the only bank whose shares have suffered in the credit crunch. But Barclays is of particular concern because the success of its Barclays Capital investment bank has been closely identified with the booming credit markets that seized up in August. The investment bank Credit Suisse restarted coverage of the stock yesterday with an 8 per cent downgrade to 2007 earnings, based on higher funding costs and expected reductions in trading and investment income. Bob Diamond, who runs BarCap, has done the rounds to remind investors that his business does commodities and foreign exchange as well as leveraged finance and structured credit.
Exports push maize up despite jump in output
MUMBAI: Despite a jump in maize production estimates for year 2007-08, farmers have been able to realise good prices, mainly because of good export demand. Though a certain section of the industry feels that maize exports should be banned, others say a ban would reduce prices for farmers. With good projections for rabi, India has the potential to produce 15-16 million tonnes of maize this year (both kharif and rabi) as against last year's 13.8 million tonnes. Sukhjit Starch and Chemicals' Rajeev Puri said that even if one considers 10% growth in consumption by end users, they may require 14.5 million tonne which leaves a surplus of 1.5 million tonne for exports. Mr Puri said during the start of season, maize price was down to Rs 580-Rs 590 per quintal in Nizamabad, going down to Rs 500 levels and it was the export demand that supported the prices.
Hi Javed
It shows how the Central Bank no longer controls rates. Which of course is not a bad thing. It is rate manipulation that lands us in bubbles and inflation. b) Then the column tries to find out the type of monetary regime we are in. At the moment it is more towards a harder peg to the dollar. But the column shows that in the past the peg loosens somewhat from April onwards and eventually backfires on us. c) The final part relates to foreign borrowing. Is foreign borrowing good bad or ugly? We have now gone beyond the original sin. We can borrow abroad in our own currency. Actually this is a big thing. There is no special value attached to 'foreign exchange'. That 'foreign exchange' is more valuable than rupees is a bit of a false concept born out of living with loose monetary policy - that means money printing- for six decades.
SocGen Trader's Secrets, a Bank’s Missteps
The first e-mail message arrived in Société Générale's offices on Nov. 7. The surveillance office at Eurex, one of Europe's biggest exchanges, alerted a compliance officer at the bank that for seven months a trader named Jérôme Kerviel had engaged in not just one but “several transactions" that had raised red flags. Société Générale, taking its time, responded on Nov. 20, when another risk-control expert at the bank replied that there was nothing irregular. “The recent volatility increase on the U.S. and European stock markets explains our new need for after-hours trading," the bank official wrote about Mr. Kerviel's trades, according to e-mail messages reviewed by The New York Times. A second e-mail message from Eurex came on Nov. 26. Not satisfied by the bank's explanation, the bourse demanded more details.
Cotton plantings could be lowest since 1983
The National Cotton Council may project that U.S. farmers will plant the fewest acres with the fiber since 1983, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The council will forecast U.S. cotton acreage of 9.4 million acres in 2008 in its planting intentions report Friday, according to the average estimate of nine analysts, traders and economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Acreage may be even lower than the Memphis-based council's forecast because prices of soybeans, wheat and corn have surged to records after farmers were surveyed from Dec. 10 through Jan. 18. "I expect farmers have been making decisions to reduce cotton acreage as we go along week by week," said Carl Anderson, professor emeritus at the agriculture department of Texas A&M University in College Station.
Market Insider/Thursday Look Ahead
Will stocks get a Bernanke bounce? That's certainly what some traders are hoping for ahead of Fed Chairman Ben Bernake's testimony before the Senate Banking committee Thursday. But of course, there's always the chance his comments could bring on a Valentine's Day massacre. Bernanke appears along with Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and SEC Chairman Christopher Cox at the 10 a.m. hearing, which promises to be the highlight of what could be a very busy day in the markets. Their topic is the financial markets and the economy. Some important earnings are on the calendar - including UBS and Commerzbank. Also reporting are Comcast .
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